Conference Tournament Preview: Mid-Majors

Now that the calender has turned to March, it's officially college basketball's month to shine. Starting this weekend, bids for the NCAA tournament will begin to be handed out. There are a few mid-major tournament that start within the next few days that could have lasting ramifications on the NCAA tournament.

Colonial Athletic Association
Dates of Tournament: Friday to Monday
Regular Season Champ: Virginia Commonwealth (24-6, 16-2, RPI 60)
Possible NCAA At-larges: VCU, Old Dominion (23-7, 15-3, 34), Hofstra (22-8, 14-4, 67), Drexel (22-7, 13-5, 42)
Low-down: The CAA is one of the best mid-major conferences this year, with four teams having realistic dreams of an at-large NCAA berth. All of the teams are on the bubble, with Hofstra being the likely odd team out if they don't win the conference tournament because of their low RPI and weak schedule. If Old Dominion or Drexel make it to the final of the tournament they should be in the tournament, and probably will be in with only a semi-final berth. VCU would really be on the bubble if they didn't win the tournament, as they ran through the conference but have absolutely no big wins out of conference.
Prediction for conference tournament: #4 Drexel over #1 VCU and #3 Hofstra over #2 Old Dominion in an extremely intense set of semi-finals. #3 Hofstra over #4 Drexel in the final as Hofstra pulls off the conference title to cement it's NCAA status. Hofstra, Drexel, and Old Dominion all get NCAA bids, while VCU's bubble bursts.

Missouri Valley Conference
Dates of Tournament: Thursday to Sunday
Regular Season Champ: Southern Illinois (15-3, 25-5, 5)
Possible NCAA At-larges: Southern Illinois, Creighton (19-10, 13-5, 29), Missouri State (20-9, 12-6, 36), Bradley (19-11, 10-8, 46)
Low-down: Southern Illinois is an absolute lock for the NCAA tournament with an RPI of 5, and if they win the conference tournament they will probably get a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney. Creighton is probably in as well, and if Missouri State can get to the semi-finals of the conference tournament, that should be enough for them to get in. Missouri State does have a tough quarterfinal game to get past against former top 10 team Wichita State. Bradley probably needs to get to the final of the conference tourney to even have a shot at an at large bid. For the Braves to do that, they will need to beat a Northern Iowa team that beat them twice in the regular season and then beat Southern Illinois in the semi's.
Predictions: #1 Southern Illinois over #5 Northern Iowa, #3 Missouri State over #2 Creighton in a good pair of semi-finals. #1 Southern Illinois over #3 Missouri State in the final. Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State make it to the NCAA tournament.

Southern Conference
Dates: Wednesday to Saturday
Low-down: Both regular season champ Davidson (17-1, 27-4, 61) and runner-up Appalachian State (15-3, 24-6, 53) have at-large aspriations. Both are unlikely at-large teams but they are possibilites. The biggest thing hurting both of them is strength of schedule. Davidson's SOS is 224, and Appalachian State's is 144. Appalachian State has a stronger at-large case than Davidson because Appalachian State has quality wins over Wichita State, Virginia, Vanderbilt, and VCU. Davidson, on the other hand, has no quality wins out of conference but has won 23 of their last 24 games. The teams only played once during the season and Appalachian State won at Davidson.
Predictions: Appalachian State and Davidson face each other in a final that matches teams that will have combined for 54 wins. Appalachian State beats Davidson in a nail biter and Davidson sweats out Selection Sunday to no avail, as their strength of schedule dooms them to the NIT.

West Coast Conference
Dates: Friday to Monday
Low-down: For the first time in a few years, Gonzaga (11-3, 21-10, 68) will not be guarenteed an NCAA tournament bid if they do not win the WCC tournament. Their biggest obstacle is Santa Clara (10-4, 20-9), who would have won the WCC regular season title if they hadn't lost their last two games of the season. Santa Clara's coach is retiring at the end of the season, and the players will want to send him off with an NCAA tournament bid. Other teams with a shot at unseating Gonzaga are San Fransisco (8-6, 13-17) and Saint Mary's (8-6, 16-14).
Predictions: Santa Clara upsets Gonzaga to earn the automatic NCAA bid. Gonzaga's bubble burts and they miss the NCAA tournament.

Other low mid-majors that could be a factor in March Madness:
Winthrop (Big South)
Marist (MAAC)
Holy Cross (Patriot)