Western Conference Part 2

These three teams are a clear cut above the rest of the Western Conference and it will be very surprising if someone besides these three wins the conference. In reverse order again:

3. San Antonio Spurs (39-18)
Right now the Spurs are only one game ahead of Utah for the 3rd playoff spot, but I think everyone would agree that they are a much better team than the Jazz and will be able to hold them (and any other contenders) off. San Antonio is a veteran team who has been though this time of year plenty of times. At this point they know that they have a very small chance of getting one of the top two seeds, and so they can rest their players somewhat and make sure that everyone on the team is fully healthy going into the playoffs. One of the most dangerous things about the Spurs is that they almost for sure will be playing their best basketball of the year in the playoffs. The Spurs are playing very well lately too, as they are currently on a six game winning streak. Throughout the year, the Spurs have put together a number of short winning streak of four or five games (six of those streaks in total), and they have only lost three games in a row once all year. This shows that San Antonio is very consistent with the ability to win a number of games in a row. Not surprisingly, the Spurs are led by Tim Duncan, who is averaging 20 and 11 this year. Helping Duncan out on offense are Tony Parker with 19 PPG and Manu Ginobli with 17. The Spurs have been a fantastic three point shooting team this year, led by Breant Barry (45%), Parker (44%), Ginobli (40%), and Bruce Bowen (38%). They also have Robert Horry and Micharl Finley who don't have amazing numbers this year, but have been 3-point shooters throughout their careers. Another aspect of the Spurs to like is the fact that Bruce Bowen, while he has gotten slighty older and slower, is still one of the best defensive players in the league. While San Antonio will be the third best team entering the playoffs, it would come as absolutely no shock if they were to win the West.

2. Dallas Mavericks (48-9)
Dallas has the best record in the NBA, and their record is even more impressive when you consider the fact that they started out the season 0-4. That means that since the first four games of the season, Dallas has been 48-5, which is 9.6 wins per every loss. That stat basically means that the Mavericks have just been absolutely unbeatable this regular season. They have had winning streaks of 12 and 13 games, and are currently on another 13 game winning streak. Dallas is led by probably the leading MVP candidate, Dirk Nowitzki, who it putting up 25.4 PPG and 9.6 RPG. Josh Howard is having a career year, scoring 19.2 a game. Jerry Stackhouse is a great scorer off the bench as 6th man, either Jason Terry or Devin Harris can bring up the court and they are the starting backcourt, and Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop are both inside presences that rotate at the center position. It will be very, very tough for any team in the league to beat the Mavs in a seven game series, but there's one team that I think can do it...

1. Phoenix Suns (44-14)
I think this is the year that the Suns get over the Western conference championship hump and win the conference. In my opinion, Steve Nash is having an even better season than he had the last two years, and his supporting cast is stepping it up also. It seems like Amare Stoudamire is finally coming back into his own after his knee surgery, and if he is 100% for the playoffs, he will be a force. Even without Amare being completely healthy this season, he is still leading the team in points, and he is putting up 20.8 and 9.9 a game. Nash and Amare run the pick and roll so beautifully and it is almost impossible to defend. In addition to Amare's almost 21 and 10 a night, Nash is putting up 19 PPG and 12 APG a night. Shawn Marion, although he is only 6-7, leads the team in rebounds with 10.2 a game. In addition to that rebounding, Marion is also scoring 18.4 PPG. The Suns top six players are all in double figures, with Leandro Barbosa scoring 17 a game, Raja Bell scoring 15 a game, and Boris Diaw scoring 10 a game. I think that the Suns not only have best trio of players in the league, but they also have the best top six players combination in the league. The one thing that could derail this team is the fact that all six players play over 32 minutes per game and they could be tired by the time the playoffs roll around. Barring that though, I think that this team will take down any team in a seven game series, even the Mavericks.

Western Conference playoff predictions:
Dallas Mavericks over Houston Rockets in 6
Phoenix Suns over San Antonio Spurs in 7

Phoenix Suns over Dallas Mavericks in 7

NBA Notebook: Western Conference

After discussing each of the Eastern Conference contenders yesterday, over the next two days, I will talk about the Western Conference. The West is better than the East by leaps and bounds, and any of these Western teams would have an excellent shot at winning the East title. I see there being seven teams in the West that can legitimately make a deep run in the postseason. Although there is a clear cut-off after the top 3 teams, the other 4 are all very talented and could be tough to handle for one of the top teams. In reverse order this time:

7. Utah Jazz (37-19)
The Jazz are currently fourth in the Western conference standings, but I cannot see them making a deep run in the postseason. Utah started off the season incredibly hot, starting out 21-5, but then cooled off quickly, going just 8-12 in their next twenty games. Although they have regained some momentum lately with an 8-2 run in their last ten games, I don't think Utah has enough weapons to win a playoff series in the Western conference. Even if Carlos Boozer (21.5 PPG), Mehmet Okur (18.2), and Deron Williams (17.3 and 9.3 APG) were to keep up their career years for the rest of the season, I don't think that trio would be able to beat a team led by Carmelo/Iverson, Kobe/Odom, or McGrady/Yao, let alone one of the top three teams. Utah is 22-7 at home this season, so if they end up holding onto the 4 seed (which I don't see happening), they could possibly win a first round series. However, I think that the Rockets and the Lakers will surpass them, and Utah will lose quickly to San Antonio in the first round.

6. Denver Nuggets (27-28)
The Nuggets are an extremely tough team to figure out. On one hand, they have two of the best scorers in the entire league in Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. On the other hand, they are just 27-28 this season, and Carmelo and AI are having some trouble learning how to play with each other, as they have gone just 6-11 with both scorers in the line-up. The reason that I still ranked them 6th in the conference is pretty much just off of potential. Iverson wants to do anything to win a championship, including defering to Carmelo on this team. If those two guys can figure out how to play together, and George Karl can figure out how to use them well together, this team can give a top 3 seed trouble. The Nuggets biggest weakness is that they have almost no inside prescence. An inside rotation of Marcus Camby, Nene, Eduardo Najera, and Reggie Evans will not get it done. At this point the Nuggets look as if they will be the #7 seed and play either Phoenix or Dallas, with either one being an extremely tough match-up. At the very least, it will be fun to watch Iverson (the most competitive player in the league) do everything he can to try to lead his team to a title.

5. LA Lakers (33-25)
The Lakers have been pretty consistent all year, mixing up wins and losses fairly evenly, with their recent 6 game losing streak being their longest streak either way all year. Even though the role players have gotten better this year, and Kobe has learned to play with them, this team will still go as far in the playoffs as Kobe takes them. If Kobe is able to find a balance of shooting all the time (two years ago) and deferring to his teammates (last year's Suns series) then the Lakers can challenge any team in the West in a seven game series. Kobe is putting up 29.0 PPG this year, but he also leads the team in assists. Behind Kobe, Lamar Odom (16.2), Smush Parker (11.8) and Luke Walton (11.7) are all in double digits, with Odom almost averaging a double-double a night as he leads the team with 9.4 rebounds per game. Behind these top four, the role players are very balanced in their scoring. Five players are averaging between 7 and 9 PPG, including the center combo of Kwame Brown and Andrew Bynum. Bynum in particular has really stepped up this year, starting 41 of the 58 games this season. The Lakers have the potential to upset a top team in the playoffs, but they will need a lot of breaks for it to happen. As Kobe goes, so do the Lakers.

4. Houston Rockets (35-21)
Ever since the Rockets acquired Tracy McGrady from Orlando to team with Yao Ming, Houston has been expected to take the leap and contend for an NBA championship. Anytime you have two of the top ten most dominating players in the league, a championship should be the expectation, not just a hope. While this year may not be the year they seriously contend, this team definitely has the potential to make a run for the title. The Rockets are 5th in the West, only two games behind 4th, even with Yao playing less than half the games so far because of injuries. Yao plans to return to games in early March, and it will be very interesting see how Houston does at the end of season with both Yao and McGrady fully healthy and playing together. Yao and McGrady obviously lead the team in offense, combining for 50.5 points per game. That duo has gotten a lot of help this year however, from players like 3 point shooter Luther Head (11.1 PPG, 43% 3 pointers), point guard Rafer Alston (13.7), and forwards Juwan Howard (10.1) and Shane Battier (10.3). Battier in particular was an excellent signing in the offseason as he adds not only some scoring and outside shooting, but intangibles like hustle, leadership, and a will to win. With Yao being out so much, Dikembe Mutombo has stepped up nicely in his place and held down the center position. Houston will not break into the top 3 of the conference seeding-wise, but they should be able to overtake Utah and get the 4 seed and home court advantage in the first round. Houston against LA would be a very interesting and entertaining first round series. We will learn much more about Houston in the next couple of months as Yao gets healthy, but they are a very talented team that could potentailly lose in the first round to the Lakers or Jazz or beat the Mavs and make to the conference finals.

Top 3 teams coming tomorrow...

NBA Notebook: Eastern Conference

Over the next few days, I will offer my personal list of the teams in each conference of the NBA and rank those teams in order of their likelihood of reaching the NBA finals out of that conference. Starting out today will be the Eastern Conference, with only five legitimate title contenders, and in the next couple days will be the Western Conference, with seven teams I will profile.

#1 Detroit Pistons
Not only do the Pistons have the best record in the Eastern Conference right now by 4.5 games, but they have also spent the year pretty much injury-free and are currently playing their best basketball of the year, having won 12 of their last 13 games. This season is extremely different than last season was for the Pistons. Last season, Detroit was considered easily the top team in the East, if not the whole NBA, all year long, with people even saying that they had a chance at winning 70 games. Anything less than a championship last season would have been considered incredibly disappointing. Unfortunately for Detroit, they let problems with chemistry and Flip Saunders deteriorate their season, along with a little help from Dwyane Wade. This year, it seems as if Detroit has almost flown under the radar with the East being down, and Lebron, D-Wade, and Gilbert Arenas getting most of the attention in that conference. With the exception of Ben Wallace, the Pistons return the same core of players from a team that was a few breaks away from winning three NBA championships in a row. They were also able to add Chris Webber mid-season, and even though Webber has been slowing down lately, he still adds another interior prescence. Detroit also has much more depth than they have had any of the last three years, with 12 players averaging more than 10 minutes a game. They have 3 solid big men on the bench in Antonio McDyess, Nazr Mohammed, and Jason Maxiell, and also 3 solid back-up guards in Flip Murray, Carlos Delfino, and Lindsey Hunter. The Pistons have to be the odds-on favorite in an extremely weak Eastern Conference, even if Wade and the Heat were fully healthy.

#2 Miami Heat*
This entry is made with an asterisk because the Heat will only stay in this spot if Dwyane Wade can come back fully healthy from his shoulder injury. Even without Wade, I think that the Heat would make the playoffs in such a weak conference, but they would be absolutely no threat to win the conference without their superstar. It might be a surprise to see a team with a sub .500 record and with their best player out indefinitely ranked this high, but if Wade is healthy for the postseason then they have as good a chance as any team of making it to the finals. Even though it seems as if the Heat are taking this season easy and thinking that they can just turn it on later, maybe they will be able to do just that. They did basically the same thing last year, and it worked out fine for them then. The biggest difference between this year and last year besides the Wade injury is the fact that last year the Heat was filled with a bunch of veteran players that had never won a title like Gary Payton, Jason Williams, and Antoine Walker, and these players were more than willing to give up inidividual stats for the sake of the team. This year, those players already have their title, and they may not be quite as willing to sit on the bench or be told not to shoot as much. This team is the biggest wild card in the whole league, but with a healthy Dwyane Wade, they can beat anybody.

#3 Washington Wizards
The Wizards have cooled off a bit in last few weeks, going just 4-6 in their last ten, but I still see them as having a decent chance at winning the Eastern title. The Wizards are obviously led by Agent Zero, Gilbert Arenas, who, in addition to being the NBA's best player-blogger, is scoring 29.2 points this season and seems to always save his best for late in the game. Agent Zero is helped by having two other teammates who are scoring around 20 points a game in addition to his 29. Caron Butler is averaging 20.3 PPG and Antawn Jamison is scoring 19.3 a game. Besides just scoring, Arenas is averaging 6 assists a game, Butler is averaging 4 assists and 7.6 rebounds a games, and Jamison is averaging around 8 boards a game. Almost the entire Wizards offense is revolved around these weapons, but they are also helped out in the starting line-up by sharpshooter DeShawn Stevenson, who is shooting 47% from 3-point range this season, and starting center Brendan Haywood. Deciding between the Wizards and the Cavs for the #3 spot on this list was very tough but when I thought about which team I would pick if they played each other in a 7 game series, I had to go with the Wizards. I just think that Washington is playing better and with more chemistry than Cleveland this season, and I don't think Agent Zero will let the Wizards fall to the Cavs for the second year in a row.

#4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Although right now Cleveland is tied with Washington for 2nd place in the Eastern conference, the team just doesn't seem to be playing very well lately, and LeBron has seemingly been off all year. I know that he has been putting up 26.5, 7 and 6 this year, but he just doesn't seem comfortable playing in the offense or with his team. I think that this is equal parts frustration with the coach, frustration with his teammates, and frustration with how the season is playing out. If you watch a Cavs game, it seems like his teammates drop a number of easy baskets every game, but that still doesn't mean that LeBron should go to his "dribble around for 10 seconds and force up a jump shot" offensive strategy. Now, I would not be surprised at all if LeBron were to completely turn it on at the end of the year and the playoffs, but right now I just cannot see that happening. In all of this talk about LeBron, I cannot understate how poorly his teammates have been playing this year. Besides Larry Hughes, not a single other teammate averages more than 28 minutes per game. That means that besides LeBron and Hughes, no one else on the team can even manage to get on the court for more than 58% of the game. There is only one outside gunner on the team, and it seems as if half the time Damon Jones cares about how good he looks than the basketball game at hand. Even Eric Snow averages 25 minutes a game on this team! The Cavs are an incredibly perplexing team, and it will be interesting to see how they do in the postseason.

#5 Chicago Bulls
The Bulls started out the season as one of the favorites from the Eastern conference to make it to the NBA finals, and after their opening night thrashing of the Heat, those predicitions seemed prophetic. However, now that more than half of the season has been played out, Chicago has shown to be a team with a number of weaknesses, and now that the trading deadline has passed without a big deal, those weaknesses look like they will be enough to doom the Bulls in the playoffs. Chicago has absolutely no low post scoring, and they will not be able to win in the playoffs with that fact being true. Ben Wallace is still one of the better defensive players in the league, but he doesn't do very much on offense at all (6.2 PPG) and he has even slowed down a bit on the defensive end. Chicago has balanced scoring on the offensive end, with four players averaging between 15 and 21 points per game. Unfortunately those four players are either guards (Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich) or small forwards (Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni). The Bulls have a good, young core to their team, but they won't go very far in the postseason without that low post offensive option. People have been saying that the Bulls are a good, young team for three years now, and it's time for that "good, young team" to take the next step and become an elite level team. Unfortunately for the Bulls, that most likely won't happen this year.