NBA Notebook: Western Conference

After discussing each of the Eastern Conference contenders yesterday, over the next two days, I will talk about the Western Conference. The West is better than the East by leaps and bounds, and any of these Western teams would have an excellent shot at winning the East title. I see there being seven teams in the West that can legitimately make a deep run in the postseason. Although there is a clear cut-off after the top 3 teams, the other 4 are all very talented and could be tough to handle for one of the top teams. In reverse order this time:

7. Utah Jazz (37-19)
The Jazz are currently fourth in the Western conference standings, but I cannot see them making a deep run in the postseason. Utah started off the season incredibly hot, starting out 21-5, but then cooled off quickly, going just 8-12 in their next twenty games. Although they have regained some momentum lately with an 8-2 run in their last ten games, I don't think Utah has enough weapons to win a playoff series in the Western conference. Even if Carlos Boozer (21.5 PPG), Mehmet Okur (18.2), and Deron Williams (17.3 and 9.3 APG) were to keep up their career years for the rest of the season, I don't think that trio would be able to beat a team led by Carmelo/Iverson, Kobe/Odom, or McGrady/Yao, let alone one of the top three teams. Utah is 22-7 at home this season, so if they end up holding onto the 4 seed (which I don't see happening), they could possibly win a first round series. However, I think that the Rockets and the Lakers will surpass them, and Utah will lose quickly to San Antonio in the first round.

6. Denver Nuggets (27-28)
The Nuggets are an extremely tough team to figure out. On one hand, they have two of the best scorers in the entire league in Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. On the other hand, they are just 27-28 this season, and Carmelo and AI are having some trouble learning how to play with each other, as they have gone just 6-11 with both scorers in the line-up. The reason that I still ranked them 6th in the conference is pretty much just off of potential. Iverson wants to do anything to win a championship, including defering to Carmelo on this team. If those two guys can figure out how to play together, and George Karl can figure out how to use them well together, this team can give a top 3 seed trouble. The Nuggets biggest weakness is that they have almost no inside prescence. An inside rotation of Marcus Camby, Nene, Eduardo Najera, and Reggie Evans will not get it done. At this point the Nuggets look as if they will be the #7 seed and play either Phoenix or Dallas, with either one being an extremely tough match-up. At the very least, it will be fun to watch Iverson (the most competitive player in the league) do everything he can to try to lead his team to a title.

5. LA Lakers (33-25)
The Lakers have been pretty consistent all year, mixing up wins and losses fairly evenly, with their recent 6 game losing streak being their longest streak either way all year. Even though the role players have gotten better this year, and Kobe has learned to play with them, this team will still go as far in the playoffs as Kobe takes them. If Kobe is able to find a balance of shooting all the time (two years ago) and deferring to his teammates (last year's Suns series) then the Lakers can challenge any team in the West in a seven game series. Kobe is putting up 29.0 PPG this year, but he also leads the team in assists. Behind Kobe, Lamar Odom (16.2), Smush Parker (11.8) and Luke Walton (11.7) are all in double digits, with Odom almost averaging a double-double a night as he leads the team with 9.4 rebounds per game. Behind these top four, the role players are very balanced in their scoring. Five players are averaging between 7 and 9 PPG, including the center combo of Kwame Brown and Andrew Bynum. Bynum in particular has really stepped up this year, starting 41 of the 58 games this season. The Lakers have the potential to upset a top team in the playoffs, but they will need a lot of breaks for it to happen. As Kobe goes, so do the Lakers.

4. Houston Rockets (35-21)
Ever since the Rockets acquired Tracy McGrady from Orlando to team with Yao Ming, Houston has been expected to take the leap and contend for an NBA championship. Anytime you have two of the top ten most dominating players in the league, a championship should be the expectation, not just a hope. While this year may not be the year they seriously contend, this team definitely has the potential to make a run for the title. The Rockets are 5th in the West, only two games behind 4th, even with Yao playing less than half the games so far because of injuries. Yao plans to return to games in early March, and it will be very interesting see how Houston does at the end of season with both Yao and McGrady fully healthy and playing together. Yao and McGrady obviously lead the team in offense, combining for 50.5 points per game. That duo has gotten a lot of help this year however, from players like 3 point shooter Luther Head (11.1 PPG, 43% 3 pointers), point guard Rafer Alston (13.7), and forwards Juwan Howard (10.1) and Shane Battier (10.3). Battier in particular was an excellent signing in the offseason as he adds not only some scoring and outside shooting, but intangibles like hustle, leadership, and a will to win. With Yao being out so much, Dikembe Mutombo has stepped up nicely in his place and held down the center position. Houston will not break into the top 3 of the conference seeding-wise, but they should be able to overtake Utah and get the 4 seed and home court advantage in the first round. Houston against LA would be a very interesting and entertaining first round series. We will learn much more about Houston in the next couple of months as Yao gets healthy, but they are a very talented team that could potentailly lose in the first round to the Lakers or Jazz or beat the Mavs and make to the conference finals.

Top 3 teams coming tomorrow...