A lot of Twins fans feel as if the starting rotation is one of the areas of the team that is mostly undecided, but I feel as if the rotation is more or less set already. However, just because most of the rotation is already set, doesn't mean that there isn't a lot to say about it. This is one of the most unpredictable areas for the Twins this year, yet it is also easily the area with the brightest future for the organization.
#1 Starter
Well, this one's easy enough. Johan Santana has been hands-down the best pitcher in the league the last three seasons, especially after the all-star break, when he was been absolutely dominating. Minnesota will need for him to have as good as a season as he's had the last three years, and there's no reason to believe that he won't repeat those performances this year. In the last three seasons, Santana has averaged 18.3 wins, 249.3 strikeouts, a 2.75 ERA, and a .963 WHIP, all while averaging about 7 innings a start. Those numbers are simply astounding. It is even feasible that he will have even better numbers this year, if he can start the season off better than he has in previous years. Even with how dominating he has been lately, he has started off slowly every season and if he can get off to a quick start this year, Sanatana has the potential to put up historic numbers.
#2 Starter
This is the point where the rotation picture starts to get a little bit hazy. My personal opinion is that the pitcher who will start out as the #2 starter this year is Boof Bonser, who is coming off a very promising first year in the big leagues. Bonser joined the club after starting out the season in the minor leagues, but he was invaluable in the late season when injuries struck Fransisco Liriano and Brad Radke. Bonser stepped up at the end of the season as the Twins #2 pitcher and helped lead them to the division title. In Bonser's seven games before the all-star break, he was a pedestrian 2-2 with a 5.30 ERA, but then in his eleven starts in the second half of the season, he went 5-4 with a sparkling 3.52 ERA. Starting on August 12, Bonser went 10 straight outings, leading to the end of the season, without giving up more than 3 runs a single time. This shows that he was incredibly consistent once he got used to the major leagues. Bonser is only 25 years old, and I think he will be a good fit as the #2 pitcher this year as we wait for Liriano to get healthy and Matt Garza (more on him later) to gain more experience.
#3 Starter
After giving him a hefty 1 year, $4.3 million contract this offseason, Carlos Silva seems the obvious choice to step into the role of #3 starter for the Twins. Although I am not exactly the biggest Carlos Silva fan, I was an advocate of the Twins re-signing him to a 1 year deal after the injury to Liriano. The Twins needed a pitcher and there weren't any better options out there, so why not take a chance that he might revert to his 2005 form. After a stellar year in 2005, where Silva wound up with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP, he dropped way down last year, throwing a disappointing 5.94 ERA with an 11-15 record. While I don't expect Silva to revert back to his old form, or even come that close, I also do not think he will have as bad a year as last year. I think that he will have some extra motivation this season after being criticized so much last year, and that might be enough to push him at least a little bit. While I'm hopeful that one of the young pitchers will progress to the point where he can take over the #3 spot, for now Silva is a viable option.
#4 Starter
Pretty much by default, the #4 starter position falls to free agent acquisition Ramon Ortiz. The Twins gave Ortiz a 1 year, $3.1 million contract this offseason, and with that pretty much comes a guarantee of a spot in the rotation. I am withholding judgment for now on this decision, because I want to be an optimist and at least think that there is some possibility that this signing works out. I am not completely without hope, for a four year span earlier in his career (2001-2004) Ortiz had numbers with the Angels that would be fine for a #4 starter. However, the last two years of his career have not been very promising at all. He pitched in the severly inferior National League for both of those seasons, and combined to go 20-27 with a 5.46 average ERA. While Ortiz has expressed happiness to be back in the American League, I cannot possibly fathom how being in the AL will help him. Even though he might be slightly more familiar with the hitters and ballparks, the teams and players will be of such higher quality than those in the NL that he may have a tough time adjusting to quality of play.
#5 Starter
This is where the argument really gets interesting. There are a number of players with a chance at winning the #5 starter job, such as Sidney Ponson, Matt Garza, Glen Perkins, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey. Ponson seems to be the favorite to win this job out of spring training, but to be honest I just can't see it. While I didn't object to the Twins signing Ponson to a minor league contract this offseason, I would strongly object to them giving Ponson a starting job just because he has more experience. If he is the best pitcher out of those five, then give him the job. But if not, trust it with the younger guys. After a career year in 2003, Ponson has done absolutely nothing since then, and even if he wins the starting in spring training, I cannot see him holding onto it for the full year. Both Garza and Perkins got some big league experience late last season. Garza absolutely tore through the minor leagues last year because reaching the majors and struggling a little bit in his first few starts. However, after he got those first jitters out, he settled down and pitched much better at the end of the year. In fact, after allowing 7 runs in 3 innings in his first big league start, Garza pitched between 5 and 8 innings and allowed an average of a little less than 3 runs per game. Perkins also had some success in the big leagues after he got promoted, however he only pitched in four games and all of those were as a reliever. One person that a lot of people seem to be forgetting about is Scott Baker. He was a starter for last year's team even before Liriano was moved up and although he hit a few rough spots and didn't have a great year, he is only 25 years old and has more big league experience than the rest of the young pitchers. I think that Garza will win the job coming out of spring training and Ponson will not make many, if any at all, appearences with the team all year. I'm hopeful that Garza, Baker, and Perkins all get a chance to start a decent amount of games so that they can get a feel for the major leagues, and I think that Garza has the potential to have the talent of a #1 pitcher in a couple years. Slowey also is a future big league arm but with all of the potential starting pitchers on this year's squad, I wouldn't mind seeing him spend a year in AAA getting more experience.
In conclusion, the Twins have a lot of question marks on the rotation, but it also has the potential to be an extremely solid lineup. Obviously it all starts with Santana, who will most likely be consistently magnificent all year long. Bonser could be a question mark, but he should at least be a good option to turn to. Both Silva and Ortiz are veterans with chances to turn good years into big contracts, and hopefully they will take advantage of the opportunity. The Twins have plenty of young arms that they could toss out there if the veterans don't perform well, so at the very least this season should be good experience for the young guys to set up one of the most potent rotations in baseball the next few years as Liriano comes back from injury.
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